The road is paved with uncertainty for the transportation budget

Washingtonians have been “staying home to stay healthy” since mid-March, with the closure of schools, businesses, and offices. Traffic was greatly decreased during this time—in fact, the Governor’s Office used traffic data to determine how compliant Washingtonians were with the stay home orders. To both the casual observer and many experts, this sharp drop in travel seemed to spell serious trouble for the state transportation budget.

It was therefore somewhat of a surprise when last week the transportation revenue forecast projected $5.797 billion in collections for this biennium— a decrease of “only” $623 million since February. In total, the difference between the February forecast and the June forecast is $482.5 million--7.7 percent.

Revenue impacts from the pandemic are being felt across all transportation sectors; fuel tax revenue is down by $188 million, or 5.2 percent. The forecast factors in reduced fuel demand for several years, leading to a total reduction of $80 million in the 2021-2023 biennium. Licenses and fees are also down $51 million, ferry ridership is $98 million lower, and toll collections are off $107 million.

I-976, also known as the “thirty-dollar car tabs initiative,” run by Tim Eyman, adds an additional layer of complication to the revenue forecast. After it was approved by voters, I-976 faced immediate court action. It was largely upheld in King County Superior Court, and that decision was appealed to the Washington State Supreme Court. Oral arguments in the Supreme Court case are scheduled for next week, but the Court’s final opinion may not appear until the fall.

The revenue forecast already takes into account the impacts of I-976. If it is upheld, future transportation budgets will need to increase revenue, delay or delete projects, or form some combination of these approaches.

Following the Office of Financial Management’s request for state agencies to find budget savings in anticipation of a large shortfall, the Washington State Department of Transportation proposed a $500 million “underspend,” related to projects delayed during the pandemic shutdown. They offered a further proposal to delay or eliminate $320 million worth of project, although it’s not clear which projects are included as a part of this proposal.

Thinking back to ports, the impacts of reduced transportation revenue mean that important regional projects need extra attention and vigilance to ensure they continue—you’ll need to work to ensure your priorities aren’t lost during these challenging times. Specifically, several projects are at a critical phase and need advocacy to take them through to completion such as The Gateway Program (completion of SR 509/167), construction projects on US 12 and SR 18, and a restart of planning work for Columbia River Bridge in Clark County.